The Impact of Deforestation on Central American Migration


By Anne Liu, Jeffrey Shen, Yun Shwe Eain

Image courtesy of Mongabay.

Deforestation

Douglas Magno/AFP/Getty Images

Introduction

Deforestation has led to increased Central American migration rates. In the past few decades, forestry coverage in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras has decreased drastically, which negatively impacted residents’ livelihood, food security and their susceptibility towards natural disasters, such as floods and droughts. Regions with severe deforestation coincide with regions with high migration rates, and as livelihood and food security are commonly ranked as top motivations for migration, people living in heavily deforested locations are also more likely to migrate due to natural disasters. As more people migrate or are displaced externally or internally to urban centers, regional governments are faced with enhanced pressure with rural migrants.


This data visualization was made with data contributed by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).

Forest cover data from Global Forest Watch.

Forest cover (%) in 2000
Guatemala
70%
El Salvador
48%
Honduras
60%
Forest cover (%) in 2021
Guatemala
49% (-21%)
El Salvador
40% (-8%)
Honduras
44% (-16%)
Number of floods from 2008 - 2021
Map showing number of floods in Guatemala (27), Honduras (28) and El Salvador (19) from 2008 to 2021)
Number of people displaced by floods from 2008 - 2021
Map showing people displaced by floods in Guatemala (170437), Honduras (96033) and El Salvador (5708) from 2008 to 2021)
Country Department Deforestation Rate Food Insecurity
Guatemala Alta Verapaz 22.19% 63.34%
Huehuetenango 4.81% 40.96%
Chiquimula 3.94% 46.41%
San Marcos 3.56% 37.37%
Honduras Choluteca 3.57% 52.07%
Cortés 16.95% 56.62%
Francisco Morazán 14.97% 47.00%
Yoro 14.64% 53.77%
El Salvador San Salvador 2.89% 54.70%
Ahuachapán 3.82% 70.80%
Cabañas 3.99% 67.73%
Usulután 5.60% 57.45%
Share of employment in agriculture, forestry and fishing (%) in 2021
Guatemala
29.2%
El Salvador
15.2%
Honduras
24.8%

Reasons for External Migration

For a better job, salary or working conditionsUnemploymentLack of money to cover other basic needsTo send remittanceLack of money to buy foodFamily reunificationUnsafetyFor studyOtherDeterioration of livelihoods due to natural hazardsAdventure TourismBy the direct impact of a natural hazardFor healthDon't Know / No ResponseDomestic violenceFor cultural reasons or customLoss of land due to processes of land use change02004006008001,0001,2001,400Number of Respondents

External migration is defined as leaving the home country for another country. Data from the World Food Program.

Reasons for Internal Migration

For a better job, salary or working conditionsUnemploymentOtherLack of money to cover basic needs (besides food)Lack of money to buy foodAdventure TourismFor studyDon't Know / No ResponseFor healthDeterioration of livelihoods due to natural hazardsUnsafetyBy the direct impact of a natural hazardLoss of land due to processes of land use change0200400600Number of Respondents

Internal migration is defined as relocating from one region in the home country to another region. Data from the World Food Program.
The Northern Central America countries, namely Honduras, Guatemala and El Savador, used to have at least 48% of their total land area covered by forests.
Over the two decades from 2000 - 2021, deforestation, both a cause and a consequence of climate change, becomes more prevalent in regions of Honduras, Guatemala and El Savador.
This map shows tree cover in the Northern Triangle in 2000. As can be seen, the region is heavily forested.
Here's the same map, visualized on the department level as the percent of overall area covered by trees.
When looking at deforestation rates (forest loss as a percent of original forest cover), it is clear that deforestation is a major issue impacting the region. Alta Verapaz in Guatemala has lost nearly a quarter of its orgiinal forest cover in the past 10 years!

Deforestation & Food Security

Deforestation reduces the supply of clean drinking water and food for surrounding communities, which leads to food insecurity. According to studies, the highest concentrations of food insecure populations live in regions with tropical forests. Deforestation also destroys the biodiversity and fertility of the land, making it unsustainable to be a reliable food source for people nearby.
To better understand the relationship between deforestation and food security, we reference survey data from the World Food Program. The survey was only conducted in a few departments in each country, highlighted here. For our visualization, we define food insecure households as those who answered the following when asked if they had money for food in the last 30 days: "Sometimes enough", "Rarely enough", "Insufficient".
When comparing the deforestation rates to food insecurity, it's clear that heavily deforested areas also have high levels of food insecurity, though food insecurity is an issue across the whole region.
Here's a table showing the relationship between deforestation and food insecurity.
In Guatemala, Alta Verapaz has both the highest deforestation rates and the highest food insecurity, by a significant degree.
In Honduras, the most heavily deforested department, Cortés, also has the highest food insecurity rate, though the correlation is less clear in Honduras, as all departments have comparable food insecurity.
Lastly, in El Salvador, food insecurity is a much more serious issue, though the deforestation rate is low across all departments.
In summary, there is some correlation between food insecurity and deforestation, especially in Guatemala, though food insecurity is a major issue across the region, and in areas with low deforestation.
Forest in Honduras

Deforestation and its link to loss of livelihoods



One quarter of the global population relies on forest for their livelihoods, including disadvantaged communities and indigenous communities. Deforestation in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras can have significant impacts on the livelihoods of people who rely on forests for their well-being and threatens the local population’s livelihoods, incentivizing many of them to seek labor somewhere else.

Deforestation can directly cause loss of livelihoods due to impact on industries relying on the forests and indirectly through other consequences of deforestation such as soil erosion and climate change consequences.

Deforestation's direct link to loss of livelihoods



The loss of forests can have direct impacts on the availability of natural resources, such as timber and other forest products such as fruits, nuts, and medicinal products. These resources are critical for the livelihoods of people who rely on the sale of these products for their income and sustenance, and hence deforestation can directly impact the livelihoods of these people. Hover on the images below to learn more.
People walking through a Guatamalan forest

Timber harvesting

The forest industry is an important source of income and employment in these countries. However, illegal logging and deforestation together can lead to conflicts between logging companies and local communities over access to forest resources.

People walking through a Guatamalan forest

Non-timber forest products

Forests provide a range of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) that can be used for food, medicine, and other purposes. The photo shows xate, a palm leaf exported to the United States for flower arrangements, at a workshop in Uaxactún.

People walking through a Guatamalan forest

Ecotoursim

Forests are also an important attraction for ecotourism in these countries. When forests are degraded or destroyed, it can reduce the attractiveness of these areas for tourists, which can have negative impacts on the tourism industry

Flood in Honduras

Deforestation's indirect link to loss of livelihoods through climate change


Deforestation is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming and climate change, which can in turn disrupt local weather patterns, leading to more frequent and severe natural disasters such as floods and droughts.

Climate change and the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries

The agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras provide income and food for millions of people in the region, but they are also highly vulnerable to the impacts of deforestation and climate change. Rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts are already affecting these industries, leading to crop failures, reduced yields, and damage to infrastructure.

Deforestation and Flooding

Deforestation reduces the soil's ability to absorb and store water, leading to rapid runoff during heavy rains and increasing the risk of flooding. Trees also play a critical role in intercepting rainfall and reducing the impact of raindrops on the soil, and their removal can exacerbate soil compaction and reduce the water storage capacity in the landscape. The loss of trees also makes hillsides and slopes more vulnerable to erosion and landslides, leading to blockages in rivers and streams that increase the risk of flooding.
The immediate effect of floods led to the displacement of over a million people in the period of 2008 to 2021 and the effects of floods, including the loss of property, livelihoods, and access to basic services, can be long-lasting. As a result, people may turn to external migration as their last resort for a chance to survive.
Survey data from the World Food Program shows that motivations related to livelihood and food security are among the top 5 of why Central Americans choose to migrate, both externally and internally.
As deforestation negatively impacts livelihood and food security, it will likely lead to more migration from the affected regions.

Conclusion

As data demonstrates, deforestation in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras has led to increased migration rates. Consequences of deforestation, such as loss of livelihood, decreased food security, and more severe flooding and drought, has motivated many Central Americans to start a new life in urban centers or in another country. Millions of people have already migrated due to issues with food security, unemployment and natural disaster, and it is estimated that by 2050, there will be over 10 million Central Americans in urban centers. The status quo presents challenges to urban planners and policy makers. Increased migration could lead to heightened urban design pressure, and loss of workforce and residents in rural regions can further degrade local environments and ecosystems. Therefore, we propose the policy makers and international humanitarian investors to act accordingly: Encourage both domestic and international investment on forest preservation and climate change mitigation; Provide funds for climate adaptation for affected population, and help reconstruct the regions damaged by natural disasters; Have increased effort in ensuring employment and food security in regions vulnerable from deforestation; Adjust urban planning policies to reflect demands induced by future increase in urban population.

Explore the Data: